Ajit Singh sees massive erosion in rural income

Our Bureau

NEW DELHI, Sept. 13

EVEN as the South-West monsoon has staged a clear revival since around the middle of August, the Agriculture Minister, Mr Ajit Singh, today maintained that the current drought situation in the country was the "worst in the last century'' and rural areas had been affected "much more this time than during earlier droughts''.

Speaking at a brainstorming session on `Management of drought 2002', organised by the National Centre for Disaster Management at the Indian Institute of Public Administration (IIPA) here, the Minister said that the current drought might not mean much in terms of statistics, but it would cost a lot in terms of human misery.

While consumers will not be hit in view of the comfortable public foodgrain and foreign exchange reserves positions, the farmer is likely to suffer massive erosion in income this year.

This, in turn, will also hit a number of industries such as fertilisers, pesticides and tractors, besides consumer goods that are overwhelmingly consumed in rural areas.

Mr Singh claimed that the very fact that milk supply to cities had gone up in recent months was an indication that the farmer was having to sell more milk and consume less to compensate for losses in crop income.

Meanwhile, the latest data compiled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) show that the country as a whole has received a cumulative area-weighted rainfall of 667.3 millimetres during the period from June 1 to September 11, which is almost 18 per cent below the historical long period average (LPA) of 811.1 mm.

Although this makes it a ``deficient'' rainfall in overall terms, the extent of departure from the LPA has reduced considerably to 18 per cent from 30 per cent till end-July. Also, the proportion of districts in the country receiving deficient-to-scanty rainfall has come down from 75 per cent during June-July to 64 per cent as on September 11.

For a ``normal'' monsoon, the cumulative rainfall has to be within 10 per cent of the LPA value.

Since the LPA for the entire monsoon season (June-September) is around 880 mm, the country would have to receive an average rainfall of nearly 125 mm during the remaining 19 days of this month, which is roughly 81 per cent more than the LPA for this period.

Since this seems unlikely, it is a foregone conclusion that 2002 would end up being the first ``deficient'' monsoon in 15 years.

The IMD has forecast that in the coming week, there would be enhanced rainfall activity in the Gangetic plains and Central and North-West India during the first half and over the eastern parts (including West Bengal, Bihar, Chhattisgrah and Andhra Pradesh) in the second half.

"The withdrawal phase of the monsoon is likely to commence from parts of North-West India by September 15,'' the IMD has said.